Prediction Market Intelligence — Product Requirements

📈 Prediction Market Intelligence

Aggregates predictions from Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction markets. Shows consensus forecasts, tracks crowd wisdom over time, and alerts you when sentiment shifts. For people who use prediction markets as a tool — not just a curiosity. $12/month.

B2C Prediction Markets Forecasting $12/mo

📋 Overview

What It Is

Prediction Market Intelligence aggregates forecasts from Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction markets into a unified dashboard. Track the "wisdom of crowds" across topics: politics, economics, sports, technology, climate. See not just current odds but historical trends — has the forecast moved toward or away from a resolution? Where is consensus vs. disagreement? What does the implied probability look like when you account for the market's track record?

Problem It Solves

Prediction markets are siloed — each platform has its own questions, odds, and community
Following 5 different markets across 3 platforms is time-consuming and doesn't give you a unified view
Raw odds don't tell you the whole story — where is the market heading? How has sentiment changed?
Prediction markets are often wrong, but nobody helps you account for historical accuracy when reading odds
Retail investors can't easily participate in Polymarket or Kalshi, so they need a passive intelligence tool

👥 User Personas

🎯 Primary — Forecaster / Futurist: Uses prediction markets as a hobby or profession. Wants to track forecasts across multiple platforms, see historical trends, and identify high-conviction opportunities. Pays for a unified dashboard.

📰 Journalist / Analyst: Covers geopolitics, economics, or technology. Uses prediction market data to add context to reporting — "the market assigns 65% probability to X" is a powerful editorial element.

💼 Corporate Strategist: Uses crowd forecasting to augment internal planning. Watches prediction markets for early signals on political/regulatory outcomes that could affect their business.

✨ Core Features

📊 Unified Forecast Dashboard

All your tracked questions across Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi, and other markets in one view. Shows: current odds, 24hr/7d/30d trend, resolution status, community discussion link. No more tab-switching between platforms.

📈 Forecast Trend Analysis

Historical probability chart for each question. See not just where the odds are now, but where they've been — trending toward resolution or away? A forecast that was 30% and is now 45% tells a different story than one that moved from 70% to 55%.

🔔 Alert System

Set alerts on any question: when probability crosses your threshold, when a forecast is resolved, or when unusual volume appears (indicating new information hitting the market). Telegram/email notifications.

🏆 Market Accuracy Scores

Each question tagged with historical accuracy of similar predictions. "Questions about this type resolve correctly 68% of the time" — helps you calibrate how much weight to give a forecast.

🔍 Question Discovery

Browse and search active questions across all connected markets. Filter by category (politics, tech, economics, sports, climate), resolution date, probability range. Discover high-interest forecasts you weren't tracking.

📋 "My Forecasts" Portfolio

Track your own predictions alongside market consensus. When your view diverges from the market, highlight the difference. Track your forecasting accuracy over time vs. the crowd.

📰 Weekly Forecast Digest

Every Sunday: summary of the week's most interesting forecast movements, newly resolved questions and outcomes, and a "preview" of high-stakes questions coming up in the next 2 weeks.

💰 Pricing Model

Tier	Price	Includes
Free	$0	5 questions tracked, basic trends, daily digest email
Pro	$12/month ($99/year)	Unlimited tracking, alert system, market accuracy scores, weekly digest, forecast portfolio
Analyst	$49/month	Everything Pro + API access, bulk export, journalist tooling, citation-ready charts